Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
